Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.0 in
- RP forecast
- 12.9 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.0 in | 12.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.7 in | 5.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.1 mph | 90.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.2 in | 8.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.1 in | 10.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 87 | 92 | 94 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.1% | 46.7% | 46.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 39.3% | 30.4% | 31.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 19.0% | 17.9% | 19.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.3% | 42.0% | 44.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.0% | 42.0% | 39.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.9 pp | 0.9 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 9.6% | 11.5% | 13.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 18.7% | 19.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.5% | 53.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 23.4% | 24.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 29.5% | 28.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.3% | 27.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.2% | 16.4% | — |