Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.0 in
- RP forecast
- 14.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.0 in | 14.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.8 in | 10.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.1 mph | 94.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.3 in | 11.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.7 in | 11.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 97 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.9% | 48.4% | 48.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.1% | 30.1% | 30.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.9% | 20.7% | 22.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.3% | 40.7% | 42.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.3% | 44.7% | 42.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 8.1% | 13.9% | 16.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.8% | 22.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.3% | 49.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.5% | 43.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 30.0% | 29.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.9% | 28.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.9% | 20.1% | — |