Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.36 | 1.32 | 25.1% | 10.3% | 34.0% |
| RP · chosen | 3.90 | 1.28 | 27.2% | 10.5% | 36.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.8 in | 5.7 in | 5.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.0 in | 17.1 in | 17.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.4 mph | 93.0 mph | 93.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.4 in | 4.5 in | 4.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.5 in | 13.6 in | 13.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 41.8% | 44.7% | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.3% | 29.0% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| Whiff rate | 39.1% | 33.1% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.3% | 34.0% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 27.1% | 38.0% | 35.6% | 35.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.7% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.6% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 12.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.0% | 38.0% | 38.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.4% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 50.0% | 49.1% | 49.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 46.8% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% |