Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.1 in
- RP forecast
- 4.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.1 in | 4.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.1 in | 18.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.4 mph | 91.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.1 in | 10.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.2% | 49.1% | 48.9% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.7% | 27.8% | 28.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 17.6% | 20.4% | 22.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 28.0% | 32.7% | 34.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.0% | 39.3% | 36.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 12.6% | 17.8% | 19.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.1% | 26.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.5% | 67.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 62.7% | 63.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.9% | 2.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 2.4% | 2.8% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.0% | 26.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |