Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 14.5 in
- RP forecast
- 14.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.47 | 1.13 | 28.0% | 6.9% | 43.4% |
| RP | 3.01 | 1.09 | 30.1% | 7.2% | 45.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.5 in | 14.4 in | 14.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.5 in | 9.5 in | 9.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.5 mph | 96.0 mph | 95.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.0 in | 13.1 in | 13.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.2 in | 16.3 in | 16.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 112 | 103 | 105 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 113 | 113 | 113 |
| Zone rate | 49.5% | 49.3% | 49.1% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 36.5% | 32.7% | 33.3% | 32.7% |
| Whiff rate | 30.4% | 28.7% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.5% | 43.4% | 45.4% | 43.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.1% | 37.8% | 35.4% | 37.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.9% | 28.0% | 30.1% | 28.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 39.7% | 40.2% | 39.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.3% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.1% | 39.7% | 39.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.1% | 10.2% | 11.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 38.9% | 40.1% | 38.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.9% | 11.1% | 11.9% |