Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 15.9 in
- RP forecast
- 15.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.76 | 1.40 | 15.7% | 8.2% | 43.6% |
| RP | 4.30 | 1.36 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 45.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.9 in | 15.9 in | 15.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.5 in | 8.5 in | 8.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 88.9 mph | 89.5 mph | 88.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.7 in | 16.9 in | 16.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.2 in | 9.3 in | 9.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 88 | 92 | 93 | 92 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | 92 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 45.2% | 47.2% | 47.0% | 47.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.4% | 27.5% | 28.1% | 27.5% |
| Whiff rate | 21.1% | 19.3% | 21.0% | 19.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.6% | 43.6% | 45.6% | 43.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.0% | 38.6% | 36.2% | 38.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.1% | 15.7% | 17.8% | 15.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.4% | 60.4% | 60.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.7% | 32.2% | 31.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 30.1% | 29.2% | 30.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.5% | 29.7% | 28.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.0% | 21.2% | 22.0% |