Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 9.6 in
- RP forecast
- 9.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.18 | 1.25 | 23.5% | 7.6% | 37.5% |
| RP | 3.73 | 1.21 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 39.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.6 in | 9.5 in | 9.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.8 in | 16.8 in | 16.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.2 mph | 96.8 mph | 96.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.5 in | 5.6 in | 5.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.8 in | 18.0 in | 17.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 100 | 102 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Zone rate | 52.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 50.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.1% | 29.1% | 29.7% | 29.1% |
| Whiff rate | 21.3% | 23.5% | 25.2% | 23.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.3% | 37.5% | 39.5% | 37.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.9% | 41.0% | 38.6% | 41.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.2% | 23.5% | 25.5% | 23.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.9% | 33.5% | 32.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.9% | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.0% | 44.6% | 44.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.7% | 11.8% | 12.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.8% | 22.0% | 20.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.7% | 13.9% | 14.7% |