Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 15.4 in
- RP forecast
- 15.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.83 | 1.41 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 43.3% |
| RP | 4.37 | 1.37 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 45.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.4 in | 15.3 in | 15.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.9 in | 8.0 in | 7.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.0 mph | 93.6 mph | 93.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.7 in | 16.8 in | 16.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.0 in | 17.1 in | 17.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 89 | 94 | 95 | 94 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | 91 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | 91 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 48.5% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 24.1% | 26.8% | 27.4% | 26.8% |
| Whiff rate | 18.0% | 19.9% | 21.6% | 19.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.7% | 43.3% | 45.3% | 43.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.3% | 41.9% | 39.5% | 41.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 14.5% | 16.5% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.3% | 26.9% | 26.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.5% | 53.5% | 53.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 18.3% | 18.8% | 18.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.3% | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.0% | 20.3% | 19.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.0% | 19.2% | 20.0% |