Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 3.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.65 | 1.20 | 30.1% | 9.6% | 40.3% |
| RP · chosen | 3.20 | 1.17 | 32.2% | 9.9% | 42.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.1 in | 3.0 in | 3.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.7 in | 17.7 in | 17.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.0 mph | 96.6 mph | 96.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.8 in | 18.9 in | 18.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.5 in | 11.6 in | 11.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 120 | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 113 | 114 | 114 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Zone rate | 48.9% | 49.5% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.1% | 31.0% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| Whiff rate | 30.4% | 29.9% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.3% | 40.3% | 42.3% | 42.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.1% | 39.5% | 37.1% | 37.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 33.3% | 30.1% | 32.2% | 32.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 19.8% | 20.3% | 20.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 66.6% | 66.6% | 66.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.6% | 36.2% | 36.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.9% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.2% | 32.4% | 32.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.1% | 17.3% | 17.3% |