Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.5 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.38 | 1.29 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 37.3% |
| RP · chosen | 3.93 | 1.25 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 39.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.5 in | 16.4 in | 16.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 3.9 in | 3.9 in | 3.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 89.2 mph | 89.7 mph | 89.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.5 in | 17.7 in | 17.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.6 in | 7.7 in | 7.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 116 | 117 | 117 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 48.1% | 48.8% | 48.6% | 48.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.0% | 29.2% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| Whiff rate | 23.4% | 21.4% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.7% | 37.3% | 39.3% | 39.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.0% | 36.4% | 34.0% | 34.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.8% | 21.8% | 23.9% | 23.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.1% | 36.7% | 36.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.3% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 21.5% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.6% | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.4% | 36.6% | 36.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 27.2% | 26.4% | 26.4% |