Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.3 in
- RP forecast
- 15.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.3 in | 15.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.6 in | 9.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.9 mph | 94.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.0 in | 6.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.6 in | 15.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.7% | 48.9% | 48.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 40.4% | 34.5% | 35.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.1% | 23.2% | 24.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.6% | 42.7% | 44.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.4% | 41.8% | 39.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.6% | 19.5% | 21.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 46.0% | 46.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.7% | 50.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.2% | 35.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.5% | 1.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.1% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 43.8% | 45.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.9% | 13.1% | — |