Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 14.4 in
- RP forecast
- 14.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.73 | 1.37 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 40.4% |
| RP | 4.27 | 1.33 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 42.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.4 in | 14.3 in | 14.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.6 in | 10.7 in | 10.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.0 mph | 91.6 mph | 91.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.3 in | 3.5 in | 3.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.8 in | 13.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | 92 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 42.6% | 45.6% | 45.4% | 45.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.7% | 29.2% | 29.8% | 29.2% |
| Whiff rate | 21.1% | 21.5% | 23.2% | 21.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.5% | 40.4% | 42.4% | 40.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.1% | 41.5% | 39.1% | 41.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.5% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 17.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.7% | 30.2% | 29.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.0% | 54.0% | 54.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.6% | 26.2% | 25.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.5% | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.4% | 28.6% | 27.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.2% | 16.4% | 17.2% |