Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.72 | 1.35 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 40.6% |
| RP · chosen | 4.27 | 1.31 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 42.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.8 in | 15.7 in | 15.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.9 in | 11.0 in | 11.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.0 mph | 93.6 mph | 93.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.0 in | 15.1 in | 15.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.6 in | 15.8 in | 15.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 51.2% | 51.0% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.1% | 28.3% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 20.8% | 20.1% | 21.8% | 21.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.0% | 40.6% | 42.6% | 42.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.4% | 39.1% | 36.7% | 36.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.8% | 17.7% | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.2% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.7% | 51.7% | 51.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 46.4% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 27.4% | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.4% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.7% | 14.0% | 14.0% |