Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.98 | 1.39 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 40.7% |
| RP · chosen | 4.52 | 1.35 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 42.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.7 in | 7.7 in | 7.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.3 in | 15.4 in | 15.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.6 mph | 93.2 mph | 93.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.2 in | 17.4 in | 17.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.0 in | 7.1 in | 7.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 86 | 92 | 93 | 93 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | 90 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 51.9% | 51.3% | 51.1% | 51.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.4% | 27.7% | 28.3% | 28.3% |
| Whiff rate | 14.5% | 16.3% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.3% | 40.7% | 42.7% | 42.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.6% | 42.2% | 39.8% | 39.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 11.7% | 14.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.8% | 42.4% | 42.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.2% | 48.2% | 48.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 22.7% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.0% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.4% | 21.6% | 21.6% |