Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.4 in
- RP forecast
- 5.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.4 in | 5.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.2 in | 17.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.1 mph | 93.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.7 in | 15.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.6 in | 6.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.5% | 49.5% | 49.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.2% | 27.4% | 28.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.7% | 22.0% | 23.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.2% | 42.5% | 44.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 47.8% | 42.9% | 40.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 27.4% | 21.2% | 23.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.5% | 27.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.5% | 62.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.6% | 40.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.8% | 9.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.7% | 24.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.3% | 19.5% | — |