Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.74 | 1.39 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 39.4% |
| RP · chosen | 4.28 | 1.35 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 41.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.6 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.9 in | 8.0 in | 8.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.2 mph | 91.7 mph | 91.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.3 in | 16.4 in | 16.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.6 in | 5.7 in | 5.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Zone rate | 47.6% | 49.4% | 49.2% | 49.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.5% | 26.1% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| Whiff rate | 18.9% | 19.3% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.1% | 39.4% | 41.4% | 41.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 28.0% | 38.5% | 36.1% | 36.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 19.6% | 18.3% | 20.4% | 20.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 45.5% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.2% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 34.4% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 43.7% | 44.9% | 44.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.5% | 13.8% | 13.8% |