Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.6 in
- RP forecast
- 4.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.6 in | 4.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.8 in | 18.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.4 mph | 93.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.5 in | 15.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.7 in | 7.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.1% | 48.8% | 48.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.8% | 30.3% | 30.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.9% | 24.4% | 26.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 31.6% | 33.1% | 35.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.3% | 38.9% | 36.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 28.2% | 21.9% | 23.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 56.3% | 56.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 40.5% | 40.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.6% | 36.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.5% | 1.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.1% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.5% | 25.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.9% | 19.2% | — |