Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.9 in
- RP forecast
- 8.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.9 in | 8.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.6 in | 15.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.8 mph | 95.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.9 in | 5.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 51.4% | 50.1% | 49.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.2% | 30.5% | 31.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.6% | 26.4% | 28.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 30.7% | 32.6% | 34.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.6% | 40.9% | 38.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 29.6% | 23.5% | 25.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 16.3% | 16.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 79.9% | 79.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.8% | 41.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.5% | 2.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.3% | 36.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.2% | 13.4% | — |