Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.56 | 1.37 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 35.8% |
| RP · chosen | 4.11 | 1.33 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 37.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.7 in | 8.6 in | 8.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.6 in | 17.6 in | 17.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.1 mph | 97.7 mph | 97.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.1 in | 3.2 in | 3.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.4 in | 12.5 in | 12.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 44.8% | 47.2% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.6% | 29.7% | 30.3% | 30.3% |
| Whiff rate | 29.7% | 27.4% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.7% | 35.8% | 37.9% | 37.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.9% | 41.6% | 39.2% | 39.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.3% | 22.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 24.3% | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.9% | 58.9% | 58.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 47.5% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 17.0% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.2% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.4% | 15.7% | 15.7% |