Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.1 in
- RP forecast
- 9.0 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.1 in | 9.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.0 in | 14.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.0 mph | 95.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.3 in | 15.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.7 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 108 | 108 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.8% | 48.5% | 48.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.8% | 30.5% | 31.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.2% | 27.0% | 28.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.9% | 42.9% | 44.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 27.9% | 39.2% | 36.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 24.0% | 23.3% | 25.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 23.8% | 24.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.6% | 60.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.6% | 36.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 15.2% | 14.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.2% | 23.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.4% | 14.6% | — |