Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.7 in
- RP forecast
- 13.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.7 in | 13.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.7 in | 12.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.5 mph | 99.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.4 in | 4.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 121 | 107 | 108 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 109 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 57.8% | 52.1% | 51.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.6% | 31.2% | 31.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.1% | 25.8% | 27.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 54.8% | 45.7% | 47.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.0% | 39.6% | 37.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 24.7% | 24.7% | 26.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 15.7% | 16.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 76.7% | 76.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 72.4% | 73.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.6% | 5.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 13.9% | 15.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |