Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.62 | 1.43 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 49.1% |
| RP · chosen | 4.16 | 1.39 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 51.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | -2.0 in | -2.0 in | -2.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.5 mph | 91.1 mph | 91.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.7 in | 14.8 in | 14.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.1 in | 14.2 in | 14.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 85 | 86 | 86 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 44.8% | 46.8% | 46.6% | 46.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.3% | 26.7% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Whiff rate | 22.6% | 21.9% | 23.7% | 23.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.3% | 49.1% | 51.1% | 51.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.8% | 42.4% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.8% | 18.6% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.3% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.9% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.2% | 32.7% | 32.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.2% | 15.3% | 15.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.4% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.0% | 16.2% | 16.2% |