Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.5 in
- RP forecast
- 8.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.61 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 7.2% | 37.6% |
| RP | 3.15 | 1.10 | 30.6% | 7.5% | 39.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.5 in | 8.4 in | 8.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.9 in | 17.0 in | 16.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.7 mph | 97.3 mph | 96.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.5 in | 5.6 in | 5.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.7 in | 13.8 in | 13.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 113 | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 109 | 111 | 109 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| Zone rate | 45.5% | 48.0% | 47.7% | 48.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.1% | 31.8% | 32.4% | 31.8% |
| Whiff rate | 33.2% | 31.0% | 32.8% | 31.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.4% | 37.6% | 39.6% | 37.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.0% | 41.9% | 39.5% | 41.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.1% | 28.6% | 30.6% | 28.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.0% | 41.6% | 41.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.7% | 45.7% | 45.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.7% | 41.3% | 40.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.7% | 12.8% | 13.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.1% | 36.3% | 35.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.7% | 13.0% | 13.7% |