Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.21 | 1.21 | 23.8% | 7.6% | 30.3% |
| RP · chosen | 3.75 | 1.18 | 25.9% | 7.8% | 32.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.4 in | 7.4 in | 7.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.3 in | 15.3 in | 15.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.4 mph | 90.9 mph | 90.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.4 in | 10.5 in | 10.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 111 | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 110 | 111 | 111 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 51.1% | 50.4% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.6% | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 30.9% | 27.6% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 28.0% | 30.3% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.4% | 36.0% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.1% | 23.8% | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 61.0% | 61.5% | 61.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 36.0% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.2% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 59.3% | 60.5% | 60.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |