Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.74 | 1.37 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 40.1% |
| RP · chosen | 4.29 | 1.34 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 42.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.2 in | 5.2 in | 5.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.2 in | 13.2 in | 13.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.7 mph | 92.3 mph | 92.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.6 in | 15.8 in | 15.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.4 in | 13.5 in | 13.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | 96 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 50.5% | 50.7% | 50.5% | 50.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.3% | 27.8% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Whiff rate | 18.3% | 19.0% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.2% | 40.1% | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.3% | 40.0% | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 16.2% | 15.6% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.6% | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.9% | 38.9% | 38.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 15.9% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.3% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 16.8% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.8% | 19.0% | 19.0% |