Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 6.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.20 | 1.25 | 24.1% | 8.0% | 34.2% |
| RP · chosen | 3.75 | 1.21 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 36.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.4 in | 6.3 in | 6.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.7 in | 18.8 in | 18.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.5 mph | 95.1 mph | 95.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.8 in | 13.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.1 in | 10.3 in | 10.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 48.8% | 48.1% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.8% | 31.1% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| Whiff rate | 30.3% | 27.8% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.3% | 34.2% | 36.2% | 36.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.4% | 39.7% | 37.3% | 37.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 27.3% | 24.1% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 63.8% | 63.8% | 63.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 46.3% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 33.2% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.2% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.3% | 14.5% | 14.5% |