Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.8 in
- RP forecast
- 3.7 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.8 in | 3.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 20.1 in | 20.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.8 mph | 94.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.0 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 98 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 91 | 91 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.8% | 49.6% | 49.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.5% | 30.3% | 30.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.8% | 24.1% | 25.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.6% | 33.4% | 35.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.2% | 40.5% | 38.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 30.0% | 25.5% | 27.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.4% | 36.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.1% | 62.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 47.6% | 48.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 1.6% | 0.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.3% | 22.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.3% | 11.5% | — |