Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.5 in
- RP forecast
- 14.4 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.5 in | 14.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.2 in | 9.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.9 mph | 91.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.6 in | 3.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 75 | 89 | 90 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 88 | 89 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 82 | 83 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 5.9% | 32.5% | 32.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.3% | 27.8% | 28.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 16.7% | 16.7% | 18.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 50.0% | 16.6% | 15.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 0.0% | 27.7% | 29.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 50.0% | 44.7% | 42.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.4 pp | 1.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 50.0% | 16.9% | 17.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 0.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.0% | 25.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 65.5% | 65.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 34.1% | 34.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.4% | 7.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.7% | 26.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.1% | 22.3% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable