Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.4 in
- RP forecast
- 3.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.4 in | 3.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.5 in | 18.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.7 mph | 92.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.0 in | 13.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.7 in | 17.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 87 | 88 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 48.5% | 45.6% | 45.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.5% | 26.1% | 26.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 51.2% | 33.8% | 35.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.0% | 43.1% | 45.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.0% | 44.0% | 41.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 16.0% | 16.2% | 16.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 44.0% | 24.4% | 26.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.9% | 32.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.4% | 52.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 47.2% | 47.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.9% | 16.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.5% | 30.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.4% | 15.6% | — |