Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.4 in
- RP forecast
- 4.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.4 in | 4.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.6 mph | 93.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.9 in | 7.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Zone rate | 43.3% | 46.9% | 46.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 37.2% | 29.8% | 30.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 36.7% | 25.7% | 27.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 14.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.2% | 35.0% | 37.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.4% | 38.4% | 36.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 29.5% | 20.0% | 22.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.3% | 27.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.4% | 58.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 12.2% | 12.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.1% | 12.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.0% | 1.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.3% | 36.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.1% | 19.3% | — |