Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 16.1 in
- RP forecast
- 16.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.22 | 1.38 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 56.3% |
| RP | 3.76 | 1.34 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 58.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.1 in | 16.0 in | 16.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 2.0 in | 2.1 in | 2.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.8 mph | 93.4 mph | 92.8 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.9 in | 17.0 in | 16.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.6 in | 9.7 in | 9.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 88 | 88 | 88 |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 47.4% | 47.1% | 47.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.8% | 29.5% | 30.1% | 29.5% |
| Whiff rate | 21.9% | 22.8% | 24.5% | 22.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 60.8% | 56.3% | 58.3% | 56.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.5% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 40.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.6% | 19.5% | 21.6% | 19.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.8% | 29.3% | 28.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.7% | 57.7% | 57.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.7% | 45.3% | 44.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.3% | 13.4% | 14.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.6% | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.4% | 14.6% | 15.4% |