Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 16.1 in
- RP forecast
- 16.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.74 | 1.41 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 46.1% |
| RP | 4.28 | 1.37 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 48.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.1 in | 16.0 in | 16.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.4 in | 7.4 in | 7.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | 94.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.7 in | 16.9 in | 16.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.0 in | 14.1 in | 14.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 96 | 98 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 93 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 49.2% | 49.3% | 49.0% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.9% | 27.1% | 27.7% | 27.1% |
| Whiff rate | 18.1% | 19.2% | 21.0% | 19.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.8% | 46.1% | 48.1% | 46.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.0% | 42.6% | 40.2% | 42.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.9% | 16.8% | 18.9% | 16.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 19.9% | 20.4% | 19.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 64.0% | 64.0% | 64.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 41.3% | 41.9% | 41.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.3% | 15.4% | 16.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.8% | 20.0% | 18.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.7% | 15.9% | 16.7% |