Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 9.8 in
- RP forecast
- 9.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.64 | 1.32 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 35.6% |
| RP | 4.18 | 1.29 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 37.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.8 in | 9.7 in | 9.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.7 in | 16.7 in | 16.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.9 mph | 91.4 mph | 90.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.3 in | 14.4 in | 14.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 4.9 in | 5.0 in | 4.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | 92 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 46.3% | 46.8% | 46.6% | 46.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.0% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 22.9% | 23.8% | 25.6% | 23.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.6% | 35.6% | 37.6% | 35.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.9% | 38.0% | 35.5% | 38.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.8% | 19.6% | 21.7% | 19.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.2% | 27.7% | 27.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.3% | 47.3% | 47.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.6% | 40.1% | 39.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.3% | 24.4% | 25.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.3% | 26.5% | 25.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.7% | 20.0% | 20.7% |