Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.42 | 1.34 | 20.6% | 8.5% | 44.0% |
| RP · chosen | 3.96 | 1.30 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 46.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.7 in | 15.6 in | 15.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.0 in | 8.0 in | 8.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.7 mph | 93.3 mph | 93.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 16.0 in | 16.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.9 in | 9.1 in | 9.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 114 | 115 | 115 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 47.8% | 48.6% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.5% | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 22.7% | 22.1% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.7% | 44.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.6% | 38.0% | 35.6% | 35.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.0% | 20.6% | 22.7% | 22.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.1% | 37.7% | 37.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 43.4% | 43.4% | 43.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.2% | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.1% | 19.2% | 19.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.1% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.4% | 18.6% | 18.6% |