Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.7 in
- RP forecast
- 8.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.68 | 1.36 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 41.1% |
| RP | 4.22 | 1.32 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 43.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.7 in | 8.6 in | 8.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.7 in | 13.7 in | 13.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.3 mph | 93.8 mph | 93.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.9 in | 4.1 in | 3.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.6 in | 12.8 in | 12.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 90 | 92 | 90 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Zone rate | 47.4% | 48.4% | 48.2% | 48.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.3% | 28.6% | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 19.8% | 20.4% | 22.2% | 20.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.0% | 41.1% | 43.1% | 41.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.7% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 41.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.2% | 17.8% | 19.9% | 17.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.9% | 26.5% | 25.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.4% | 56.4% | 56.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 36.9% | 37.5% | 36.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 18.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 10.8% | 12.1% | 10.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.8% |