Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 9.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.87 | 1.41 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 41.9% |
| RP · chosen | 4.41 | 1.37 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 44.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.3 in | 9.2 in | 9.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.8 in | 8.8 in | 8.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | 94.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.2 in | 15.3 in | 15.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.4 in | 7.5 in | 7.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 88 | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | 92 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 45.6% | 47.1% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 24.2% | 26.5% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
| Whiff rate | 18.2% | 18.8% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.9% | 41.9% | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.5% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 38.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 16.3% | 16.2% | 18.3% | 18.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.4% | 34.9% | 34.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.3% | 52.3% | 52.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.7% | 33.0% | 33.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.5% | 18.7% | 18.7% |