Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 14.5 in
- RP forecast
- 14.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.52 | 1.28 | 17.3% | 6.1% | 38.5% |
| RP | 4.06 | 1.24 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 40.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.5 in | 14.5 in | 14.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.4 in | 12.5 in | 12.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.1 mph | 92.7 mph | 92.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.7 in | 12.8 in | 12.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.3 in | 11.5 in | 11.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 52.7% | 50.9% | 50.7% | 50.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.1% | 29.5% | 30.1% | 29.5% |
| Whiff rate | 17.4% | 19.6% | 21.3% | 19.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.5% | 38.5% | 40.5% | 38.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.9% | 36.9% | 34.4% | 36.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 3.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.1% | 17.3% | 19.4% | 17.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 12.1% | 12.6% | 12.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.8% | 62.8% | 62.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.7% | 28.3% | 27.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.0% | 24.0% | 25.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.0% | 25.3% | 24.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.2% | 20.4% | 21.2% |