Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 7.4 in
- RP forecast
- 7.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.58 | 1.31 | 18.4% | 6.5% | 40.7% |
| RP | 4.13 | 1.27 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 42.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.4 in | 7.3 in | 7.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.0 in | 14.1 in | 14.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.1 mph | 91.7 mph | 91.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.0 in | 5.1 in | 5.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.6 in | 8.8 in | 8.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 95 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 49.7% | 49.6% | 49.4% | 49.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.9% | 30.1% | 30.7% | 30.1% |
| Whiff rate | 22.2% | 21.6% | 23.4% | 21.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.5% | 40.7% | 42.7% | 40.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.5% | 40.6% | 38.1% | 40.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.6% | 18.4% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.8% | 32.3% | 31.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.7% | 54.7% | 54.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 23.3% | 23.9% | 23.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.4% | 12.5% | 13.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.5% | 23.7% | 22.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.7% | 19.0% | 19.7% |