Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 16.1 in
- RP forecast
- 16.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.60 | 1.34 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 42.3% |
| RP | 4.14 | 1.31 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 44.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.1 in | 16.0 in | 16.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.5 in | 7.6 in | 7.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.0 mph | 91.6 mph | 91.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 19.7 in | 19.8 in | 19.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.4 in | 17.6 in | 17.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 94 | 96 | 94 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 93 | 91 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | 91 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 51.9% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 50.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.3% | 27.1% | 27.7% | 27.1% |
| Whiff rate | 18.7% | 19.1% | 20.9% | 19.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.2% | 42.3% | 44.3% | 42.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.8% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 41.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.8% | 17.6% | 19.7% | 17.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.7% | 38.2% | 37.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.5% | 51.5% | 51.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 18.4% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.0% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.7% | 16.9% | 17.7% |