Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.4 in
- RP forecast
- 9.3 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.4 in | 9.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.9 in | 17.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.9 mph | 91.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.1 in | 14.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.7 in | 5.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 83 | 92 | 93 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 40.7% | 47.3% | 47.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 6.3% | 20.5% | 21.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 11.1% | 15.3% | 17.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 20.0% | 26.5% | 28.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 80.0% | 49.3% | 46.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 3.0 pp | 3.0 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 28.6% | 12.3% | 12.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 0.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 24.1% | 24.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.6% | 54.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.4% | 48.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 21.8% | 20.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.6% | 19.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.5% | 21.7% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable