Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.2 in
- RP forecast
- 6.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.85 | 1.36 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39.6% |
| RP | 4.39 | 1.32 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 41.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.2 in | 6.1 in | 6.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.0 in | 15.1 in | 15.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.4 mph | 92.9 mph | 92.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.0 in | 12.1 in | 12.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.6 in | 16.8 in | 16.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 88 | 94 | 96 | 94 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 95 | 93 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 94 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 46.8% | 47.6% | 47.4% | 47.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.8% | 28.2% | 28.8% | 28.2% |
| Whiff rate | 19.6% | 20.1% | 21.8% | 20.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.8% | 39.6% | 41.6% | 39.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.2% | 40.1% | 37.7% | 40.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 14.6% | 16.6% | 18.7% | 16.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.9% | 29.4% | 28.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.2% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 20.5% | 21.1% | 20.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.8% | 19.9% | 20.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.7% | 23.0% | 21.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.4% | 17.7% | 18.4% |