Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 12.2 in
- RP forecast
- 12.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 5.11 | 1.49 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 39.4% |
| RP | 4.65 | 1.45 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 41.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 12.2 in | 12.1 in | 12.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.8 in | 14.9 in | 14.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.4 mph | 95.0 mph | 94.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 1.7 in | 1.8 in | 1.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 19.2 in | 19.3 in | 19.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 89 | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 93 | 91 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 49.1% | 49.2% | 49.0% | 49.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.0% | 26.0% | 26.6% | 26.0% |
| Whiff rate | 19.0% | 21.1% | 22.8% | 21.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.7% | 39.4% | 41.4% | 39.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.9% | 44.0% | 41.6% | 44.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.7% | 16.7% | 18.8% | 16.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 43.6% | 44.2% | 43.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.9% | 52.0% | 51.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.4% | 34.0% | 33.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.0% | 31.2% | 30.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.5% | 14.8% | 15.5% |