Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 11.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.51 | 1.31 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 42.7% |
| RP · chosen | 4.05 | 1.27 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 44.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.6 in | 11.5 in | 11.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.0 in | 12.0 in | 12.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 88.1 mph | 88.6 mph | 88.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.9 in | 14.0 in | 14.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 50.3% | 49.7% | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.5% | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 23.6% | 20.7% | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.6% | 42.7% | 44.7% | 44.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.0% | 35.6% | 33.1% | 33.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 20.7% | 17.7% | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 13.3% | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.4% | 59.4% | 59.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.6% | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 26.8% | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.9% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 26.1% | 25.3% | 25.3% |