Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 14.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.62 | 1.35 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 40.3% |
| RP · chosen | 4.17 | 1.31 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 42.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.8 in | 14.7 in | 14.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.3 in | 11.4 in | 11.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.5 mph | 94.1 mph | 94.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.0 in | 18.1 in | 18.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.9 in | 10.1 in | 10.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | 96 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 48.5% | 48.1% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.2% | 28.5% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Whiff rate | 19.6% | 20.6% | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.2% | 40.3% | 42.4% | 42.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.4% | 40.9% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.3% | 17.9% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 65.7% | 65.8% | 65.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 23.0% | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 23.4% | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.6% | 21.8% | 21.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.3% | 21.5% | 21.5% |