Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.4 in
- RP forecast
- 16.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.4 in | 16.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 0.5 in | 0.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.2 mph | 91.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.1 in | 9.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | — |
| Zone rate | 40.7% | 45.1% | 44.9% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.5% | 28.1% | 28.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 27.3% | 22.9% | 24.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 2.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 27.9% | 39.4% | 41.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.3% | 40.2% | 37.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.1% | 18.0% | 20.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.3% | 25.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 69.5% | 69.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.2% | 33.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.5% | 2.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 0.9% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.7% | 28.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.5% | 23.7% | — |