Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.8 in
- RP forecast
- 7.7 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.8 in | 7.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.6 in | 13.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.7 mph | 95.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.2 in | 12.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.7% | 47.3% | 47.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.2% | 29.7% | 30.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.5% | 24.8% | 26.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 16.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.0% | 36.4% | 38.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.0% | 41.9% | 39.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 26.9% | 21.8% | 23.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.5% | 30.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 63.1% | 63.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.9% | 40.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.6% | 6.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.3% | 23.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.3% | 11.5% | — |