Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.5 in
- RP forecast
- 3.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.5 in | 3.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.4 in | 18.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.3 mph | 92.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.8 in | 6.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.3 in | 13.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.4% | 48.7% | 48.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.6% | 26.9% | 27.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.4% | 24.4% | 26.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 42.3% | 44.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 28.9% | 37.6% | 35.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 19.1% | 18.4% | 20.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 12.0% | 12.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 69.1% | 69.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.4% | 37.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 19.5% | 18.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.1% | 30.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.3% | 18.5% | — |