Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.0 in
- RP forecast
- 15.9 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.0 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 1.9 in | 2.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.9 mph | 92.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.0 in | 15.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.6 in | 14.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 95 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 40.5% | 46.1% | 45.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.0% | 28.5% | 29.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 35.3% | 25.8% | 27.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 25.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 62.5% | 51.8% | 53.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 75.0% | 48.1% | 45.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.8 pp | 0.8 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 41.2% | 24.3% | 26.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.7% | 31.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.3% | 47.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 18.0% | 18.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 23.5% | 22.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.0% | 22.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.2% | 20.4% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable