Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 13.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.51 | 1.37 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 46.7% |
| RP · chosen | 4.05 | 1.33 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 48.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.4 in | 13.3 in | 13.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.8 in | 9.9 in | 9.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | 94.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.2 in | 14.3 in | 14.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.1 in | 9.2 in | 9.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Zone rate | 45.2% | 46.9% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.4% | 28.5% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Whiff rate | 22.8% | 21.7% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 54.9% | 46.7% | 48.7% | 48.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.2% | 39.1% | 36.7% | 36.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 20.5% | 18.4% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 23.6% | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.1% | 56.1% | 56.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.4% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 21.0% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.2% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.6% | 19.8% | 19.8% |