Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 14.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.11 | 1.29 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 40.2% |
| RP · chosen | 3.65 | 1.25 | 26.8% | 9.5% | 42.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.1 in | 14.0 in | 14.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.2 in | 12.2 in | 12.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.0 mph | 97.5 mph | 97.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.7 in | 5.8 in | 5.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 114 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 84 | 84 | 84 |
| Zone rate | 40.8% | 45.8% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.7% | 29.8% | 30.4% | 30.4% |
| Whiff rate | 27.0% | 26.1% | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.0% | 40.2% | 42.2% | 42.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.7% | 40.8% | 38.4% | 38.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.6% | 24.7% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 90.6% | 90.7% | 90.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 56.6% | 57.2% | 57.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.8% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |